Utah hb15 medicaid expansion repeal

us/states/ut/generate_hb15_charts.py

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+"""Generate charts and tables for Utah HB 15 blog post."""
+
+import plotly.graph_objects as go
+from policyengine_us import Simulation
+from policyengine_core.periods import instant
+from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform
+from policyengine_core.charts import format_fig
+
+YEAR = 2027
+GRAY = '#808080'
+BLUE_PRIMARY = '#2C6496'
+TEAL_ACCENT = '#39C6C0'
+DARK_GRAY = '#616161'
+
+# FPL values for 2027
+FPL_1_PERSON = 16334
+FPL_2_PERSON = 22138
+
+
+def create_ut_medicaid_expansion_repeal():
+    def modify_parameters(parameters):
+        parameters.gov.hhs.medicaid.eligibility.categories.adult.income_limit.UT.update(
+            start=instant(f'{YEAR}-01-01'),
+            stop=instant('2100-12-31'),
+            value=float('-inf'),
+        )
+        return parameters
+
+    class reform(Reform):
+        def apply(self):
+            self.modify_parameters(modify_parameters)
+
+    return reform
+
+
+def generate_table_data():
+    """Generate table data at selected income levels."""
+
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print("SINGLE ADULT TABLE DATA")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    # Selected income levels for single adult
+    single_incomes = [
+        (12000, "75%", "Coverage gap"),
+        (16334, "100%", "FPL threshold"),
+        (18000, "110%", "ACA eligible"),
+        (22541, "138%", "Expansion limit"),
+        (25000, "153%", "Above expansion"),
+    ]
+
+    print(f"{'Income':<12} {'% FPL':<8} {'Medicaid (Base)':<18} {'Medicaid (Reform)':<18} {'ACA PTC (Base)':<16} {'ACA PTC (Reform)':<16} {'Notes'}")
+    print("-" * 120)
+
+    for income, fpl_pct, notes in single_incomes:
+        situation = {
+            'people': {'adult': {'age': {YEAR: 35}, 'employment_income': {YEAR: income}, 'monthly_hours_worked': {YEAR: 100}}},
+            'tax_units': {'tax_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+            'spm_units': {'spm_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+            'households': {'household': {'members': ['adult'], 'state_code': {YEAR: 'UT'}}},
+            'families': {'family': {'members': ['adult']}},
+            'marital_units': {'marital_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+        }
+
+        base = Simulation(situation=situation)
+        ref = Simulation(situation=situation, reform=create_ut_medicaid_expansion_repeal())
+
+        b_medicaid = base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[0]
+        r_medicaid = ref.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[0]
+        b_ptc = base.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR)[0]
+        r_ptc = ref.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR)[0]
+
+        print(f"${income:<11,} {fpl_pct:<8} ${b_medicaid:<17,.0f} ${r_medicaid:<17,.0f} ${b_ptc:<15,.0f} ${r_ptc:<15,.0f} {notes}")
+
+    print()
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print("SINGLE PARENT + CHILD TABLE DATA")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    # Selected income levels for parent+child
+    # Note: Utah has parent Medicaid at 46% FPL, so very low income parents still get coverage
+    parent_incomes = [
+        (8000, "36%", "Parent Medicaid (below 46% FPL)"),
+        (12000, "54%", "Coverage gap (above 46% FPL)"),
+        (22138, "100%", "FPL threshold"),
+        (30550, "138%", "Expansion limit"),
+        (35000, "158%", "Above expansion (CHIP)"),
+    ]
+
+    print(f"{'Income':<12} {'% FPL':<8} {'Parent Medicaid (B)':<20} {'Parent Medicaid (R)':<20} {'Child Medicaid/CHIP':<20} {'ACA PTC (B)':<14} {'ACA PTC (R)':<14} {'Notes'}")
+    print("-" * 140)
+
+    for income, fpl_pct, notes in parent_incomes:
+        situation = {
+            'people': {
+                'parent': {'age': {YEAR: 30}, 'employment_income': {YEAR: income}, 'monthly_hours_worked': {YEAR: 100}},
+                'child': {'age': {YEAR: 8}},
+            },
+            'tax_units': {'tax_unit': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+            'spm_units': {'spm_unit': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+            'households': {'household': {'members': ['parent', 'child'], 'state_code': {YEAR: 'UT'}}},
+            'families': {'family': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+            'marital_units': {'marital_unit': {'members': ['parent']}},
+        }
+
+        base = Simulation(situation=situation)
+        ref = Simulation(situation=situation, reform=create_ut_medicaid_expansion_repeal())
+
+        # Parent is index 0, child is index 1
+        b_parent_medicaid = base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[0]
+        r_parent_medicaid = ref.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[0]
+        b_child_medicaid = base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[1]
+        b_child_chip = base.calculate('chip', YEAR, map_to='person')[1]
+        b_ptc = base.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR)[0]
+        r_ptc = ref.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR)[0]
+
+        # Child coverage = Medicaid + CHIP (same in both scenarios)
+        child_total = b_child_medicaid + b_child_chip
+        child_coverage = f"${child_total:,.0f}"
+
+        print(f"${income:<11,} {fpl_pct:<8} ${b_parent_medicaid:<19,.0f} ${r_parent_medicaid:<19,.0f} {child_coverage:<20} ${b_ptc:<13,.0f} ${r_ptc:<13,.0f} {notes}")
+
+
+def generate_charts():
+    """Generate charts for the blog post."""
+
+    # Single adult situation with axes
+    single_situation = {
+        'people': {
+            'adult': {
+                'age': {YEAR: 35},
+                'monthly_hours_worked': {YEAR: 100},
+            }
+        },
+        'tax_units': {'tax_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+        'spm_units': {'spm_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+        'households': {'household': {'members': ['adult'], 'state_code': {YEAR: 'UT'}}},
+        'families': {'family': {'members': ['adult']}},
+        'marital_units': {'marital_unit': {'members': ['adult']}},
+        'axes': [[{'name': 'employment_income', 'count': 500, 'min': 0, 'max': 120000}]],
+    }
+
+    # Parent + child situation with axes
+    parent_situation = {
+        'people': {
+            'parent': {
+                'age': {YEAR: 30},
+                'monthly_hours_worked': {YEAR: 100},
+            },
+            'child': {'age': {YEAR: 8}},
+        },
+        'tax_units': {'tax_unit': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+        'spm_units': {'spm_unit': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+        'households': {'household': {'members': ['parent', 'child'], 'state_code': {YEAR: 'UT'}}},
+        'families': {'family': {'members': ['parent', 'child']}},
+        'marital_units': {'marital_unit': {'members': ['parent']}},
+        'axes': [[{'name': 'employment_income', 'count': 500, 'min': 0, 'max': 120000}]],
+    }
+
+    print('Creating simulations...')
+    single_base = Simulation(situation=single_situation)
+    single_reform = Simulation(situation=single_situation, reform=create_ut_medicaid_expansion_repeal())
+    parent_base = Simulation(situation=parent_situation)
+    parent_reform = Simulation(situation=parent_situation, reform=create_ut_medicaid_expansion_repeal())
+
+    print('Calculating single adult data...')
+    single_income = single_base.calculate('employment_income', YEAR)
+    single_baseline_medicaid = single_base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')
+    single_baseline_ptc = single_base.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR, map_to='person')
+    single_reform_medicaid = single_reform.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')
+    single_reform_ptc = single_reform.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR, map_to='person')
+
+    print('Calculating parent+child data...')
+    parent_income = parent_base.calculate('employment_income', YEAR)
+    # Parent is every other starting at 0, child is every other starting at 1
+    parent_baseline_medicaid = parent_base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[::2]
+    parent_baseline_ptc = parent_base.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR, map_to='person')[::2]
+    parent_reform_medicaid = parent_reform.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[::2]
+    parent_reform_ptc = parent_reform.calculate('premium_tax_credit', YEAR, map_to='person')[::2]
+    # Child coverage = Medicaid + CHIP (same in baseline and reform)
+    child_medicaid = parent_base.calculate('medicaid', YEAR, map_to='person')[1::2]
+    child_chip = parent_base.calculate('chip', YEAR, map_to='person')[1::2]
+    child_coverage = child_medicaid + child_chip
+    parent_income = parent_income[::2]
+
+    # Single Adult Chart
+    print('Creating single adult chart...')
+    fig = go.Figure()
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=single_income, y=single_baseline_medicaid, mode='lines', name='Medicaid (Baseline)', line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2)))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=single_income, y=single_baseline_ptc, mode='lines', name='ACA PTC (Baseline)', line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2)))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=single_income, y=single_reform_medicaid, mode='lines', name='Medicaid (Reform)', line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=single_income, y=single_reform_ptc, mode='lines', name='ACA PTC (Reform)', line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')))
+    fig.update_layout(
+        title='Single Adult: Health Benefits by Income',
+        xaxis_title='Household Income',
+        yaxis_title='Benefit Amount',
+        xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 120000]),
+        yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),
+        height=600,
+        width=1000,
+        legend=dict(orientation='h', yanchor='bottom', y=-0.2, xanchor='center', x=0.5),
+    )
+    fig = format_fig(fig)
+    fig.write_image('hb15_single_adult.png', scale=2)
+    print('  Saved hb15_single_adult.png')
+
+    # Parent + Child Chart (including child's Medicaid/CHIP)
+    print('Creating parent+child chart...')
+    fig = go.Figure()
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=parent_income, y=parent_baseline_medicaid, mode='lines', name='Parent Medicaid (Baseline)', line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2)))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=parent_income, y=child_coverage, mode='lines', name='Child Medicaid/CHIP', line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2)))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=parent_income, y=parent_baseline_ptc, mode='lines', name='ACA PTC (Baseline)', line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2)))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=parent_income, y=parent_reform_medicaid, mode='lines', name='Parent Medicaid (Reform)', line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')))
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=parent_income, y=parent_reform_ptc, mode='lines', name='ACA PTC (Reform)', line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')))
+    fig.update_layout(
+        title='Single Parent + Child: Health Benefits by Income',
+        xaxis_title='Household Income',
+        yaxis_title='Benefit Amount',
+        xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 120000]),
+        yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),
+        height=600,
+        width=1000,
+        legend=dict(orientation='h', yanchor='bottom', y=-0.2, xanchor='center', x=0.5),
+    )
+    fig = format_fig(fig)
+    fig.write_image('hb15_parent_child.png', scale=2)
+    print('  Saved hb15_parent_child.png')
+
+    print('Done with charts!')
+
+
+def main():
+    generate_table_data()
+    print()
+    generate_charts()
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    main()